Losing More Jobs

As people lose jobs, Apple has lost the biggest one. As Steve Jobs announces a six month break from Apple to focus on his health, and everyone debates the significance of this on Apple, I'd like to reflect on Jobs' role as a Creator.

Creators that get to billion dollar status don't do so through their ability to create, but their ability to set the playground for others to create. Creation isn't the flourishing of options (everyone has ideas. That doesn't mean everyone is a Creator), but the elimination of options (a great Creator doesn't have to be an expert at coming up with ideas, but is an expert at attracting great creations and eliminating everything but the golden nugget, which then gets polished and multiplied).

As an analyst just commented, "Over the least ten years he has been the person who has filtered and synthesized the collective genius of all of Apple's engineers ... he has picked and chosen the best and ripest ideas and played a critical role in fitting those great concepts into great products."

Any concerns that Apple won't come up with great ideas without Steve are unfounded. All the best ones - from iTunes to iPod to iPhone were not Steve's. If anything, without Steve, Apple will come up with too many ideas - without the guiding hand and vision to zoom down to the ones that count. So if you're a Creator profile, don't congratulate yourself for the ideas you have, but measure yourself by your record at attracting, selecting and then bringing to market the one idea that counts.

In the meantime, get well soon, Steve.

Money, Money, Money!

Yesterday, Reuters reported that the Fed is pumping out new US dollars at the rate of close to $2 billion per day (For the mathematically inclined, that’s $1.3m new dollars per second, day in, day out). The total US dollars in circulation has ballooned by an annualized 24% since the Federal Reserve turned on the money pumps in September. We’re now up to $8 trillion and counting (that’s double the money supply at the turn of the Millennium).

What does all this mean? It means way too many dollars. With Obama’s upcoming spending plan and interest rates already effectively at zero, it’s likely that dollars will keep breeding like rabbits. The Washington Post wrote today of the disruptive effects this could have on stock prices. When excess dollars are not in property or in stocks, they have to go somewhere - In the first half of last year this wave of cash and fidgety market traders led to crazy commodities. In the second half (as the exodus from property and stocks continued) it led to crazy currencies (From the Australian Dollar to the British Pound).

The news today is full of corporations asking for cash. The news tomorrow will be full of governments asking for cash (Actually, it’s already started). Cash is flowing with greater power to disrupt than at any other time, and no institution has the attraction to give it a home. So in 2009 asset values will continue to yo-yo (including currencies) – some to breaking point. If you’re a Trader – Good luck! If you’re not - diversify any assets you have (if it’s in cash – have multiple currencies), and focus 100% on building value. There’s never been a worse time to try and time the markets. There’s never been a better time to start a business.

Deliver a product of real value, grow off your own cash flow, and once that $3 trillion-a-day river of global cash gets tired of bouncing between moving markets and seeking safety, it will settle back into the time-trusted job of seeking great investments and, by then, you’ll be ready for some of it to find a home with you.